Thursday, February 24, 2022

Ukraine: Why it Matters (Simplified)

Today, February 24, 2022, marks the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. It is the largest military action in Europe since WWII. Most Americas are likely to ignore this headline or simply think it doesn’t impact them. For right-wing Americans, this news does matter insofar as they are fans of Vladmir Putin. And this is a part of why this invasion matters both globally and for the U.S.

 

Vladmir Putin, a dictator by any measure, is a former Soviet Union-era Kremlin operative who has been seething over the collapse of the Soviet Union since 1991. He blames the collapse on NATO nations; his distain for NATO is no secret. Putin’s goal with Ukraine – as with Crimea and similar former Soviet territories previously – is to ‘put the band back together’ and put NATO on notice what with Poland, a NATO nation, being right next door to Ukraine.  

 

Putin’s pretext for the invasion, which he said he had no intention of in recent weeks, is to destroy Ukraine’s military capability as they supposedly pose a threat to Russia. This is a fanciful justification. But this justification is important as if the invasion is successful despite otherwise ‘severe’ sanctions (Putin has never cared about sanctions) this will provide other authoritarian leaders a reason to invade whomever they want under the pretext of preemptively defending themselves. On a more basic level, this invasion expands the power of an authoritarian leader the world could do without, especially when you consider the currently warm relationship between Russia and China. The world is trending towards more and more authoritarian regimes. Even in the U.S. both the far-left and far-right fringes would love nothing more than absolute power.

 

[Certainly, the far-left will condemn this particular military action because they can’t verbalize their true intentions, but seeing Putin in action is likely to embolden the worst factions of the American far-right. Just a few days ago, Donald Trump praised Putin.]

 

Not only does this military action disrupt stability in Europe, but it further destabilizes politics in the U.S. Already this morning I’ve heard the question, “Why now?” Consider that the mid-term elections are a few months away and if President Biden reacts poorly, a GOP wave of elections is assured. If Biden handles the situation well, there is still time for Russia to aid GOP candidates in some other manner, likely more social media disinformation campaigns.

 

There is an impact to the U.S. economy as well as the only reason any country cares about Russia is – bottom line – Russia’s oil and natural gas exports. U.S. markets opened on news of the invasion to oil jumping over $100 a barrel. Given the intimate relationship between oil and the world’s economies, this is bad news. Putin is aware of this and knows he can hold the world an economic hostage with Russia’s oil and gas.

 

What should be done in response? The international community will slap (more) ineffective sanctions on Russia, which is why I personally favor a full-on military and cyber-attack response since 1) this is the only language Putin understands and 2) to cripple Russia’s military and banking institutions before Russia can strategically withdraw its oil and gas. This would have the added benefit of rattling China. I’m not going to say this wouldn’t be a very dangerous route to pursue, but it is the only option in stopping Putin from terrorizing the world in the future.

 

Of course, that is my opinion. I’m not a foreign policy expert. But then, neither were the last two previous presidents.

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