Today, February 24, 2022, marks the full-scale invasion of
Ukraine by Russia. It is the largest military action in Europe since WWII. Most
Americas are likely to ignore this headline or simply think it doesn’t impact
them. For right-wing Americans, this news does matter insofar as they are fans
of Vladmir Putin. And this is a part of why this invasion matters both globally
and for the U.S.
Vladmir Putin, a dictator by any measure, is a former Soviet
Union-era Kremlin operative who has been seething over the collapse of the
Soviet Union since 1991. He blames the collapse on NATO nations; his distain
for NATO is no secret. Putin’s goal with Ukraine – as with Crimea and similar
former Soviet territories previously – is to ‘put the band back together’ and
put NATO on notice what with Poland, a NATO nation, being right next door to
Ukraine.
Putin’s pretext for the invasion, which he said he had no intention of in recent weeks, is to destroy Ukraine’s military capability as
they supposedly pose a threat to Russia. This is a fanciful justification. But
this justification is important as if the invasion is successful despite otherwise
‘severe’ sanctions (Putin has never cared about sanctions) this will provide
other authoritarian leaders a reason to invade whomever they want under the
pretext of preemptively defending themselves. On a more basic level, this
invasion expands the power of an authoritarian leader the world could do
without, especially when you consider the currently warm relationship between
Russia and China. The world is trending towards more and more authoritarian regimes.
Even in the U.S. both the far-left and far-right fringes would love nothing
more than absolute power.
[Certainly, the far-left will condemn this particular
military action because they can’t verbalize their true intentions, but seeing Putin
in action is likely to embolden the worst factions of the American far-right.
Just a few days ago, Donald Trump praised Putin.]
Not only does this military action disrupt stability in
Europe, but it further destabilizes politics in the U.S. Already this morning I’ve
heard the question, “Why now?” Consider that the mid-term elections are a few
months away and if President Biden reacts poorly, a GOP wave of elections is
assured. If Biden handles the situation well, there is still time for Russia to
aid GOP candidates in some other manner, likely more social media
disinformation campaigns.
There is an impact to the U.S. economy as well as the only
reason any country cares about Russia is – bottom line – Russia’s oil and
natural gas exports. U.S. markets opened on news of the invasion to oil jumping
over $100 a barrel. Given the intimate relationship between oil and the world’s
economies, this is bad news. Putin is aware of this and knows he can hold the
world an economic hostage with Russia’s oil and gas.
What should be done in response? The international community
will slap (more) ineffective sanctions on Russia, which is why I personally favor
a full-on military and cyber-attack response since 1) this is the only language
Putin understands and 2) to cripple Russia’s military and banking institutions
before Russia can strategically withdraw its oil and gas. This would have the
added benefit of rattling China. I’m not going to say this wouldn’t be a very dangerous
route to pursue, but it is the only option in stopping Putin from terrorizing
the world in the future.
Of course, that is my opinion. I’m not a foreign policy
expert. But then, neither were the last two previous presidents.
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